To: chrisb@seachg.com (Chris Blask) Subject: Re: Candian Crime Newsgroups: talk.politics.misc,alt.politics.usa.misc,alt.politics.libertarian,talk.politics.guns,talk.politics.theory,alt.fan.rush-limbaugh,alt.politics.elections,misc.legal Bcc: skeeter In talk.politics.guns, article <1994Jan11.165208.12414@seachg.com>, (on Tue, 11 Jan 94 16:52:08 GMT) you wrote: : bud@kentrox.com (Bud Couch) writes: : > jammer@jane.uh.edu (Miller, Jimmy A.) writes: : As a matter of fact, I think I'd have a hard time believing that second bit : no matter *what* stats are produced. I live smack-dab in the centre of the : largest city in Canada and I wouldn't blink to have my wife walking home at : 3am. The idea that Toronto or anywhere else in Canada has higher violent : crime than the US is unbelievable. : In a metro area of 4 Million people there were fewer than 90 murders in : 1993, while I believe there were around 400 in South Carolina (which has a With everything I hear and see from all the media these days, I had a hard time believing it, too. However, when one does a bit of digging, it's easy to see that it's true. And the same numbers come up again and again. You say metro Toronto had 90 murders per 4 million. That's about 2.25 per 100,000 (and not far off the national average). The number is probably a bit higher, but since I don't have the stats handy I can't say either way. Saskatoon, SK (where I live) has a rate of about 3 (per 100,000) and everyone here considers it a very quiet, peaceful, and safe city. I'm just giving this for comparison. There are two ways to count homicides. You can look at death certificates or police records. The numbers are a little different, but it doesn't matter as long as you don't mix them up. The death certificate counts are from the World Health Organization Statistical Yearbook. The police record counts are from Statistics Canada (1988). 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 death certificates 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.2 police reports 2.7 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.5 I include the source data, drawn from the Canadian Socio-economic Information System (CANSIM) database. Year Population Murders 1962 18442000 217 1963 18786992 214 1964 19142000 218 1965 19500992 243 1966 19856992 220 1967 20228000 281 1968 20580992 314 1969 20888000 342 1970 21182000 430 1971 21464992 426 1972 21709600 479 1973 21942400 474 1974 22235296 545 1975 22568688 633 1976 22883888 615 1977 23158400 624 1978 23417392 590 1979 23644496 587 1980 23911888 493 1981 24221296 599 1982 24483392 624 1983 24705696 625 1984 24895792 621 1985 25090400 651 1986 25274000 522 1987 25492896 588 1988 25785792 537 1989 26097696 605 1990 26452096 589 Year murder rate 1963 1.139 1964 1.139 1965 1.246 1966 1.108 1967 1.389 1968 1.526 1969 1.637 1970 2.030 1971 1.985 1972 2.206 1973 2.160 1974 2.451 1975 2.805 1976 2.687 1977 2.694 1978 2.519 1979 2.483 1980 2.062 1981 2.473 1982 2.549 1983 2.530 1984 2.494 1985 2.595 1986 2.065 1987 2.307 1988 2.083 1989 2.318 1990 2.227 (Stats Can) How do guns figure into this? In Canada from 1961-1990, there were a total of 15,198 homicides. 63.1% were withOUT a firearm. 14.3% were with a non-restricted rifle. 13% were with a UNlawfully possessed restricted firearm. 6.5% were with a non-restricted shotgun. 2.4% were with a unidentified firearm. Only 0.7% were with a LEGALLY owned and registered restricted firearm. (handguns, some rifles) (Source: Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics.) Below are numbers for 1990 crime rates in all 50 states plus DC. Gun Homi- Rights cide Index **' Average for: Top third 41 12.2 Middle third 66 7.0 Bottom third 80 6.1 D. C. 0 77.8 Illinois 7 10.3 Tennessee 28 10.5 Texas 33 14.1 Arkansas 33 10.3 California 42 11.9 New York 43 14.5 Utah 44 3.0 New Jersey 45 5.6 Iowa 46 1.9 N. Dakota 50 0.8 Hawaii 50 4.0 N. Carolina 52 10.7 Florida 54 10.7 Massachusetts 54 4.0 Ohio 55 6.1 Maryland 56 11.5 Missouri 58 8.8 Minnesota 61 2.7 Virginia 62 8.8 Colorado 65 4.2 New Mexico 66 9.2 Kentucky 66 7.2 Oklahoma 66 8.0 Wisconsin 66 4.6 Alaska 66 7.5 Arizona 66 7.7 Nebraska 66 2.7 Kansas 66 4.0 Michigan 66 10.4 S. Carolina 67 11.2 Connecticut 69 5.1 Mississippi 69 12.2 Wyoming 69 4.9 Oregon 71 3.8 Rhode Island 72 4.8 W. Virginia 72 5.7 Georgia 76 11.8 Alabama 77 11.6 Idaho 77 2.7 Washington 78 4.9 Indiana 79 6.2 Pennsylvania 80 6.7 New Hampshire 81 1.9 Delaware 83 5.0 Nevada 83 9.7 S. Dakota 83 2.0 Montana 83 4.9 Maine 84 2.4 Louisiana 88 17.2 Vermont 99 2.3 So, only Iowa, N. Dakota, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Maine, and Vermont had a lower murder rate than Canada in 1990. Nebraska, Idaho, Utah, and Minnesota were about the same or slightly higher. Even Colorado, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, and Oregon aren't far off. That's about 14 states where the OVERALL average is about equal to Canada's. If you include all but DC then the US rate should be about 6 to 9. (I don't have exact numbers.) That's about 2 to 3 times Canada's rate. (These last number are very approximate.) Alexandria, VA with a population of 110,000 has a rate of about 4. Alexandria is just a few minutes outside of Washington, D.C., which has a rate of about 80 per 100,000; the highest in NA. Washington, D.C. has the toughest anti-gun laws in the U.S. and VA has very few by comparision. Draw your own conclusions. There are many factors at work here. People on both sides of the issue seem to ignore that fact. However, I find it very difficult to draw the common conclusion that "guns cause crime". If anything, I can see that it is more often, but not always, the opposite. -- skeeter@skatter.usask.ca University of Saskatchewan "Deo et Patriae" Just my $1.58 (expressed in 1994 dollars and adjusted for inflation and appreciation). No one else's opinions are implied. DO NOT EAT