Newsgroups: alt.activism.death-penalty Path: tribune.usask.ca!mizar.cc.umanitoba.ca!newsflash.concordia.ca!utcsri!utnut!torn!news.ccs.queensu.ca!ipc16!spraggej From: spraggej@Jeff-Lab.QueensU.CA (John G. Spragge) Subject: Murder rates over the abolition of capital punishment in Canada Message-ID: Keywords: criminal justice statistics Sender: news@knot.ccs.queensu.ca (Netnews control) Reply-To: spraggej@Jeff-Lab.QueensU.CA Organization: Queens University at Kingston Date: Fri, 13 Aug 1993 11:02:21 GMT Lines: 287 More Criminal Justice Statistics ==== ======== ======= ========== The following provides the change in Canadian criminal offence and murder rates from the time of the last execution in Canada to the present. Parliament eliminated the offence of capital murder from the Criminal Code of Canada in 1976, thus abolishing the death penalty for all civilian offences. It remains in force for such extraordinary offences as treason in time of war. In Canada, first degree murder (premeditated murder, or murder during the commission of a crime) carries a penalty of life in prison, with no chance of parole for 25 years. Second degree murder carries a penalty of life in prison, with no chance of parole for 10 years. I include the source data, drawn from the Canadian Socio-economic Information System (CANSIM) database. From this, I have calculated Canadian crime rates, and in particular the Canadian murder rate, along with the changes in the murder rate for each year. Table 1: Source data for population and offences Year Population Crimes All offences Murders 1962 18442000 796675 217 1963 18786992 874572 214 1964 19142000 960917 218 1965 19500992 989451 243 1966 19856992 1094889 220 1967 20228000 1188704 281 1968 20580992 1335444 314 1969 20888000 1470760 342 1970 21182000 1574223 430 1971 21464992 1648818 426 1972 21709600 1650230 479 1973 21942400 1809135 474 1974 22235296 2009886 545 1975 22568688 2132507 633 1976 22883888 2182777 615 1977 23158400 2226601 624 1978 23417392 2305965 590 1979 23644496 2485630 587 1980 23911888 2692159 493 1981 24221296 2850059 599 1982 24483392 2838840 624 1983 24705696 2748578 625 1984 24895792 2713946 621 1985 25090400 2724308 651 1986 25274000 2858205 522 1987 25492896 2960908 588 1988 25785792 2955828 537 1989 26097696 2992632 605 1990 26452096 3170219 589 Table 2: Crime rates Year crime murder murder as rate rate % of crime 1962 4319.9 1.177 0.027238% 1963 4655.2 1.139 0.024469% 1964 5019.9 1.139 0.022687% 1965 5073.8 1.246 0.024559% 1966 5513.9 1.108 0.020093% 1967 5876.5 1.389 0.023639% 1968 6488.7 1.526 0.023513% 1969 7041.2 1.637 0.023253% 1970 7431.9 2.030 0.027315% 1971 7681.4 1.985 0.025837% 1972 7601.4 2.206 0.029026% 1973 8244.9 2.160 0.026200% 1974 9039.2 2.451 0.027116% 1975 9449.0 2.805 0.029683% 1976 9538.5 2.687 0.028175% 1977 9614.7 2.694 0.028025% 1978 9847.2 2.519 0.025586% 1979 10512.5 2.483 0.023616% 1980 11258.7 2.062 0.018312% 1981 11766.7 2.473 0.021017% 1982 11595.0 2.549 0.021981% 1983 11125.3 2.530 0.022739% 1984 10901.2 2.494 0.022882% 1985 10858.0 2.595 0.023896% 1986 11308.9 2.065 0.018263% 1987 11614.6 2.307 0.019859% 1988 11463.0 2.083 0.018167% 1989 11467.0 2.318 0.020216% 1990 11984.8 2.227 0.018579% Table 3: Change in crime rates Year murder % change change in rate in murder murder as rate % of crime 1963 1.139 -3.19342% -0.00277 1964 1.139 -0.02009% -0.00178 1965 1.246 9.41585% 0.00187 1966 1.108 -11.08815% -0.00447 1967 1.389 25.38458% 0.00355 1968 1.526 9.82718% -0.00013 1969 1.637 7.31633% -0.00026 1970 2.030 23.98586% 0.00406 1971 1.985 -2.23632% -0.00148 1972 2.206 11.17441% 0.00319 1973 2.160 -2.09377% -0.00283 1974 2.451 13.46441% 0.00092 1975 2.805 14.43099% 0.00257 1976 2.687 -4.18182% -0.00151 1977 2.694 0.26071% -0.00015 1978 2.519 -6.49447% -0.00244 1979 2.483 -1.46407% -0.00197 1980 2.062 -16.95277% -0.00530 1981 2.473 19.94891% 0.00270 1982 2.549 3.05847% 0.00096 1983 2.530 -0.74100% 0.00076 1984 2.494 -1.39874% 0.00014 1985 2.595 4.01783% 0.00101 1986 2.065 -20.39812% -0.00563 1987 2.307 11.67641% 0.00160 1988 2.083 -9.71079% -0.00169 1989 2.318 11.31646% 0.00205 1990 2.227 -3.94899% -0.00164 Changes in the murder rate before and after abolition: Average murder rate from 1962, 1963, 1964 = 1.15 Average murder rate from 1975, 1976, 1977 = 2.73 Average murder rate from 1988, 1989, 1990 = 2.21 Percent change in the murder rate from 1962 to abolition = 137% Percent change in the murder rate from abolition to present = -19% It certainly appears, given the figures in these tables, that the abolition of capital punishment has not had much effect on the murder rate in Canada. In fact, murder as a percentage of all crimes in Canada has decline since abolition, from a high of 0.029% in 1975, the year before abolition, to 0.018% today, much lower than the 0.027% of 1962 when Canada still used the death penalty. These figures suggest that abolition of capital punishment does not trigger an increase in the murder rate; in fact, by most measures the murder rate has levelled off, and we have seen a modest but encouraging decline. Table 4: Comparison of urban and rural murder rates for 1990 per 100,000 population Ontario 1.88 * Newfoundland None New York 14.5 + no death penalty California 11.9 + death penalty enacted Texas 14.1 + death penalty (frequent use) Georgia 11.8 + death penalty Louisiana 17.2 + death penalty * includes all manslaughter + includes non-negligent manslaughter I have included Canada's most urban province (Ontario) and its (by most measures) poorest province, Newfoundland. For reference, I have included several American States. Please note: I do not claim that these differentials by themselves invalidate the use of the death penalty in the United States. I included the figures mainly to analyse the different pattern in murder rates between mainly urban jurisdictions (Ontario, New York, and California) and more rural jurisdictions (Louisiana, Georgia). Appendix 1: References for the statistics The following notes cover the Canadian criminal justice and population statistics I used to generate these summaries. I obtained them all from the CANSIM database. QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF POPULATION FOR CANADA AND THE PROVINCES, IN THOUSANDS QUARTERLY POPULATION CANADA PERSONS SCALAR FACTOR 03 SOURCE SDDS 3601 STC (91-001 VOL. 11, NO. 3; 91-002) , BY PROVINCE CANSIM SERIES IDENTIFIER 000001.1 NOTE ESTIMATES FOR QUARTERLY PERIODS FROM JAN. 1946 FOR CANADA AND FROM JULY 1 1951 FOR THE PROVINCES. QU ARTERLY DATA RELATE TO JAN. 1, APRIL 1, JULY 1 AND OCTOBER 1. QUARTERS FROM 1951 TO APRIL 1, 1986 AR E INTERCENSAL ESTIMATES. DATA PUBLISHED APPROXIMAT ELY 75 DAYS AFTER END OF REFERENCE QUARTER. FOOTNOTE 1 FINAL POSTCENSAL ESTIMATES. FOOTNOTE 2 UPDATED POSTCENSAL ESTIMATES. FOOTNOTE 3 PRELIMINARY POSTCENSAL ESTIMATES. CRIMES BY ACTUAL OFFENCES, CANADA, PROVINCES AND TERRITORIES, BY YEAR. CRIMES BY OFFENCES ALL OFFENCES, TOTAL, CANADA CRIMES SCALAR FACTOR 00 SOURCE SDDS 3302 STC (85-205) CANSIM SERIES IDENTIFIER 002200.1 NOTE OFFENCES ARE REPORTED IN THE MONTH THEY BECOME KNO WN TO POLICE. INFANTICIDES ARE INCLUDED IN TOTAL C RIMES OF VIOLENCE. PROVINCIAL/TERRITORIAL TOTALS W ILL NOT EQUAL CANADA TOTAL BECAUSE THE CN AND CP P OLICE DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE BY PROVINCE EXCEPT FO R QUEBEC. FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION, PLEASE RE FER TO CANSIM CROSS-CLASSIFIED TABLES. CRIMES BY ACTUAL OFFENCES, CANADA, PROVINCES AND TERRITORIES, BY YEAR. CRIMES BY OFFENCES MURDER, CANADA CRIMES SCALAR FACTOR 00 SOURCE SDDS 3302 STC (85-205) CANSIM SERIES IDENTIFIER 002200.1.1.1.1 NOTE OFFENCES ARE REPORTED IN THE MONTH THEY BECOME KNO WN TO POLICE. INFANTICIDES ARE INCLUDED IN TOTAL C RIMES OF VIOLENCE. PROVINCIAL/TERRITORIAL TOTALS W ILL NOT EQUAL CANADA TOTAL BECAUSE THE CN AND CP P OLICE DATA ARE NOT AVAILABLE BY PROVINCE EXCEPT FO R QUEBEC. FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION, PLEASE RE FER TO CANSIM CROSS-CLASSIFIED TABLES. Appendix 2: Program used to generate table 2 and table 3 I used the following program to generate table 2 and table 3. Please feel free to abstract it and use it on any jurisdiction for which you can obtain the population, the crime rate, and the murder rate. It expects a table with four (free-format) columns, organized thus: year population crimes murders ---------------- cut here ----------------------------------------------- /* calculate the changes in the crime rate, in the murder rate, and in the crime rate */ #include typedef float ts [50]; /* time series variables */ main () { ts y, pop, ac, m, /* year/pop/crimes/murder */ cr, mr, /* crime rate/murder rate */ mpc, mrc, /* murders per crime/murder rate change */ cmc; /* change in murders per crime */ FILE *s, *r; /* source/result file */ int c, i; /* counters */ s = fopen ("crime.data", "r"); r = fopen ("crime02.memo", "w"); for (c = 0; c < 50 && fscanf (s, "%f %f %f %f", y + c, pop + c, ac + c, m + c) == 4; c++) { fprintf (r, "%4.0f %10.0f %10.0f %10.0f\n", y [c], pop [c], ac [c], m [c]); cr [c] = ac [c] / pop[c] * 100000; /* get the crime rates */ mr [c] = m [c] / pop [c] * 100000; mpc [c] = (m [c] / ac [c]) * 100; /* murder as % of crime */ mrc [c] = c > 0 ? (mr [c] - mr [c - 1]) / mr [c - 1] * 100 : 0; cmc [c] = c > 0 ? mpc [c] - mpc [c - 1] : 0; } fputs ("\n\nTable 1: Crime rates\n", r); fputs ("Year crime murder murder as\n", r); fputs (" rate rate % of crime\n", r); for (i = 0; i < c; i++) fprintf (r, "%4.0f %10.1f %10.3f %10.6f%%\n", y [i], cr [i], mr [i], mpc [i]); fputs ("\n\nTable 2: Change in crime rates\n", r); fputs ("Year murder % change change in\n", r); fputs (" rate in murder murder as\n", r); fputs (" rate % of crime\n", r); for (i = 1; i < c; i++) fprintf (r, "%4.0f %10.3f %10.5f%% %10.5f\n", y [i], mr [i], mrc [i], cmc [i]); }