Sender: "Edgar A. Suter" Subject: Facts for CCW debate - Florida For those who may be confronted with HCI's claim that "crime increased 19% after Florida's Concealed Carry reform" or with MacDowall, Loftin, and Wiersema's "University of Maryland study," the following excerpt from our upcoming article may be helpful. "Violence in America - Effective Solutions" from the June 1995 issue of the Journal of the Medical Association of Georgia will be available in two weeks. __ The excerpt: Progressive reform Complete, consistent, and constitutional application of the automobile model of gun ownership could provide a rational solution to the debate and enhance public safety. Reasonable compromise on licensing and training is possible. Generally, where state laws have been reformed to license and train good citizens to carry concealed handguns for protection, violence and homicide have fallen.[1,2 ] Even those unarmed citizens who abhor guns benefit from such policies because predators cannot distinguish in advance between intended victims who carry and victims who eschew concealed weapons. In Florida, as in other states where they have opposed reform, the anti-self-defense lobby claimed that blood would run in the streets of "Dodge City East," the "Gunshine State," that inconsequential family arguments and traffic disputes would lead to murder and mayhem, that the economic base of communities would collapse, and that many innocent people would be killed[1,2] --- but we do not have to rely on irrational propaganda, imaginative imagery, or political histrionics. We can examine the data. One-third of Americans live in the 22 progressive states that have reformed laws to allow good citizens to readily protect themselves outside their homes, openly or concealed.[1] In those states crime rates are lower for every category of crime indexed by the FBI Uniform Crime Reports.[3] Homicide, assault, and overall violent crime are each 40% lower, armed robbery is 50% lower, rape is 30% lower, and property crimes are 10% lower.3 The reasonable reform of concealed weapon laws resulted in none of the mayhem prophesied by the anti-self-defense lobby. In fact, the data suggest that, providing they are in the hands of good citizens, more guns "on the street" offer a considerable net benefit to society - saving lives, a deterrent to crime, and an adjunct to the concept of community policing. As of 12/31/93, Florida had issued 188,106 licenses and not one innocent person had been killed or injured by a concealed weapon licensee in the 6 years post-reform.[1] Of the 188,106 licenses, 17 (0.01%) were revoked for misuse of the firearm. Not one of those revocations were associated with any injury whatsoever.[1] In opposing reform, fear is often expressed that "everyone would be packing guns," but, after reform, most states have licensed fewer than 2% (and in no state more than 4%) of qualified citizens.[1] A recent flurry of pre-publication publicity highlighted an upcoming paper by critics of reform, David MacDowall, Colin Loftin, and Brian Wiersema of the University of Maryland Violence Research Group.[4] These researchers are best known for their 1989 paper in the New England Journal of Medicine[5] that, in the face of a tripled homicide rate, claimed that Washington DC's 1976 handgun freeze had lowered homicide.[6] In the face of data showing statewide reductions in homicide rates in many states that have adopted reforms (particularly impressive when compared to concurrent national trends),[1] these researchers now claim that reform of concealed weapons laws has raised homicide rates. To contrive such a "day is night" conclusion, they ignored national trends and rejected the statewide benefits of statewide laws without credible analysis. Instead they simply selected the few exceptions, the few urban areas and irregular, shifting time periods that could be contrived to show a homicide increase. Furthermore, if FBI data is used instead of the researchers' National Center for Health Statistics data (FBI data culls at least a fraction of lawful self-defense homicides), MacDowall et al.'s claim collapses. The anti-self-defense lobby has claimed that violent crime rose 19% in Florida following reform, but they fail to note that violent crime rose 23% nationally. Additionally, the data became more difficult to interpret because the accounting of violent crimes except homicide changed during this period. So, the observed homicide rate reductions are the best available indicator of the effectiveness of reform. Following reform, Florida's homicide rate fell from 36% above the national average to 4% below the national average and remains below the national average to this day.[1] Notwithstanding gun control extremists' politicized research, histrionics, and unprophetic imagery , the observed reality was that most crime fell, in part, because vicious predators fear an unpredictable encounter with an armed citizen even more than they fear apprehension by police[7] or fear our timid and porous criminal justice system. It is no mystery why Florida's tourists are targeted by predators - predators are guaranteed that, unlike Florida's citizens, tourists are unarmed. Those who advocate restricting gun rights often justify their proposals "if it saves only one lifeI." There have been matched state pair analyses, crime trend studies, and county-by-county research[1] demonstrating that licensing good, mentally-competent adults to carry concealed weapons for protection outside their homes saves many lives, so gun prohibitionists should support such reforms, if saving lives is truly their motivation. [1] Cramer C and Kopel D. Shall issue: the new wave of concealed handgun permit laws. Golden CO: Independence Institute Issue Paper. October 17, 1994. [2] Cramer C and Kopel D. Concealed handgun permits for licensed trained citizens: a policy that is saving lives. Golden CO: Independence Institute Issue Paper #14-93. 1993. [3] Federal Bureau of Investigation, US Department of Justice. Uniform crime reports: crime in the United States 1993. Washington DC: US Government Printing Office. 1994. Table 5. [4] McDowall D, Loftin C, and Wiersema B. "Easing Concealer Firearm Laws: Effects on Homicide in Three States." Discussion Paper 15. College Park MD: University of Maryland Violence Research Group. January 1995. - also forthcoming in Journal of Criminal Law & Criminology. June 1995. [5] Loftin C, McDowall D, Wiersema B, and Cottey TJ. Effects of Restrictive Licensing of Handguns on Homicide and Suicide in the District of Columbia. N. Engl J Med 1991; 325:1615-20. [6] Suter EA. Guns in the medical literature - a failure of peer review. Journal of the Medical Association of Georgia. March 1994; 83: 133-48. [7] Wright JD. and Rossi PH. Weapons, crime, and violence in America: executive summary. Washington, DC: US Dept. of Justice, National Institute of Justice. 1981. ----- End Included Message -----